Modelling Disease Progression
An approach to modelling cardiovascular disease progression by incorporating disease history variables in a time dependent fashion in series of parametric survival models for the purpose of decision analytic cost-effectiveness model was employed in the lifetime economic analyses of simvastatin in the HPS. This analysis allowed evaluation of transition probabilities in decision models by taking into consideration all disease events and their consecutive impact on disease progression during a clinical study. A further contribution of this work was to suggest an approach for adjusting the treatment effects for non-compliance and contamination with statin use during the study in a way that respects the randomisation (Heart Protection Study Collaborative Group 2006). Further work in this area is developed within the Statins and SHARP economic analyses projects in HERC.
Mihaylova, B, Briggs, A, Armitage, J, Parish, S, Gray, A, and Collins, R (2006). Lifetime cost-effectiveness of simvastatin in a range of risk groups and age groups derived from a randomised trial of 20,536 people. BMJ 333(7579):1145-8.