Cookies on this website

We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you click 'Accept all cookies' we'll assume that you are happy to receive all cookies and you won't see this message again. If you click 'Reject all non-essential cookies' only necessary cookies providing core functionality such as security, network management, and accessibility will be enabled. Click 'Find out more' for information on how to change your cookie settings.

By projecting trends over the period 1971-85 in discharge rates and lengths of stay in acute and geriatric National Health Service hospitals in England, it is estimated that by 1995 the discharge rate will have risen by 13% and average lengths of stay will have fallen by 26%. Combining these projections with current population projections for England, it is estimated that 13% fewer beds will be in daily use. These changes are shown to vary widely across specialties. The projections reveal that demographic change per se is a less important source of change than are changing activity rates. The 'trend' projections suggest that purchasers and providers within internal markets will have to take account of very different degrees of pressure between specialties. They can provide information which is essential for negotiations about local needs and local contracts.

Type

Journal

Health Policy

Publication Date

1992

Volume

20

Pages

269 - 275

Keywords

Aged, Data Collection, Demography, England, Forecasting, Health Care Costs, Hospitals, Humans, Length of Stay, Longitudinal Studies, Patient Discharge, Regression Analysis, State Medicine