Emeritus Professor Alastair Gray
Alastair Gray
BA, DPhil
Emeritus Professor of Health Economics, HERC
- Health Economics Research Centre
Alastair's research focuses on the use of economics to improve resource allocation and decision making in health care. In particular, he is interested in using robust methods to estimate the likely cost-effectiveness of new and existing health care interventions.This may involve synthesising information from different sources on costs, outcomes and effectiveness in a decision-analytic model.
Most commonly, Alastair works with clinicians and triallists to collect individual patient information within large randomised trials, typically assembling and analysing data on the cost of the intervention and the alternative, the outcomes in terms of quality of life and survival, and the cost-effectiveness in the trial and in routine care.
The economic evaluations he is involved in span many different clinical areas, from psychiatry to neurosurgery and care of the elderly. However, Alastair has particular interests in diabetes, orthopaedic surgery and population screening. These studies often involve the development and use of disease models, typically based on individual patient data, to predict lifetime costs and outcomes; his group has developed these in areas such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, kidney disease and breast cancer.
Quality of life is a crucial aspect of much of his work, and so Alastair is also interested in the methodologies used to measure and value different health states, different conceptions of quality of life, and the association between different quality of life measures.
Finally, Alastair has a long-standing interest in wider economic aspects of health care, including the impact of demographic change and ageing populations on health systems, and the economics of health care errors and adverse events.
Teaching and training are a fundamental aspect of his work, and you can find Alastair supervising 2-4 doctoral students as well as contributing to the Health Economics Research Centre's (HERC) short courses and the MSc Global Health Sciences.
Key publications
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Applied Methods of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Healthcare
Gray AM. et al, (2011)
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UKPDS Outcomes Model 2: a new version of a model to simulate lifetime health outcomes of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using data from the 30 year United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study: UKPDS 82
Hayes AJ. et al, (2013), Diabetologia
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Economic evaluation alongside randomised controlled trials: design, conduct, analysis, and reporting
Petrou S. and Gray A., (2011), Bmj-British Medical Journal, 342
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Rationing of total knee replacement: a cost-effectiveness analysis on a large trial data set.
Dakin H. et al, (2012), BMJ Open, 2
Recent publications
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Heart failure in Europe: Guideline-directed medical therapy use and decision making in chronic and acute, pre-existing and de novo, heart failure with reduced, mildly reduced, and preserved ejection fraction - the ESC EORP Heart Failure III Registry.
Lund LH. et al, (2024), Eur J Heart Fail
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The societal economic impact of vision impairment in adults 40 years and above: findings from the National Eye Survey of Trinidad and Tobago.
Braithwaite T. et al, (2024), Eye (Lond), 38, 2124 - 2133
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Minimal clinically important differences in patient-reported outcomes after coronary artery bypass surgery in the arterial revascularization trial.
Masterson Creber R. et al, (2024), Eur J Cardiothorac Surg, 66
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Health-related quality of life and healthcare costs of symptoms and cardiovascular disease events in patients with atrial fibrillation: a longitudinal analysis of 27 countries from the EURObservational Research Programme on Atrial Fibrillation general long-term registry.
Walli-Attaei M. et al, (2024), Europace, 26
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Lifetime effects and cost-effectiveness of standard and higher-intensity statin therapy across population categories in the UK: a microsimulation modelling study
MIHAYLOVA B. et al, (2024), The Lancet Regional Health - Europe