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The impact of ageing on health care expenditure: impending crisis, or misguided concern?

Dates: 2000 - Current
Funding: Marshall Aid Commemoration Commission
Information: Alastair Gray

The decades to come will see an accelerating increase in the numbers and proportions of older people in most countries. Health policy makers have expressed concern over the pressures that aging populations will have on rising health care costs.

This programme of work builds upon the existing literature, to analyse the potential link between aging and health care expenditures, and to assess how aging could be expected to impact future health expenditures.


Gray, A (2005). Population Ageing and Healthcare Expenditure. Ageing Horizons 2005(2):15-20.

Seshamani M, Gray AM (2004). Time to death and health expenditure: an improved model for the impact of demographic change on healthcare costs. Age Ageing, 33(6):556-61.

Seshamani M, Gray AM (2004). Age, Proximity to Death and Future Demands on the NHS. In: Devlin N, Appleby J, Dawson D (eds.) How much should we spend on the NHS? Issues and challenges arising from the Wanless review of future health care spending. Office of Health Economics, London, pp 56-72.

Seshamani M, Gray AM (2004). A longitudinal study of the effects of age and time to death on hospital costs. Journal of Health Economics, 23: 217-235.

Seshamani M,Gray AM (2004). Ageing and health-care expenditure: the red herring argument revisited.Health Economics, 13:303-314.

Seshamani M, Gray AM (2003). Health Expenditures and Aging: An International Comparison. Applied Health Economics and Health Policy 2003; 2(1):9-16.

Seshamani M, Gray AM (2002). The impact of ageing on expenditures in the National Health Service. Age and Ageing, 31:287-294